The crisis the world has chosen to ignore
The situation in Sudan not only threatens permanent anarchy, but to destabilise the globe.
In Sudan, a conflict between unscrupulous warlords has created the world’s worst humanitarian crisis and risks unwinding decades of progress for Africa. Content warning: this article discusses war, sexual violence and genocide.
In the temperate Sudanese climate, positioned along the River Nile which birthed civilisations, including Ancient Egypt, is a clash between warlords seeking a slice of the scattering ashes to come. Despite the global attention placed on the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, the situation in Sudan has the potential to be more devastating, disruptive and deadlier – which could unwind decades of progress in Africa and destabilise the world. It is the crisis the world has chosen to ignore.
The War in Darfur
UN Peacekeeper forces at one of the various refugee camps during The War in Darfur.
The Republic of Sudan is Africa’s third largest country (approx. 1.8 million km2) and eighth most populous, with a population of over 50 million people. Sudan, located in north-eastern Africa and bordering the Red Sea’s Suez Canal, is classified as one of the world’s most impoverished nations. Agriculture employs 80% of the population, with the average Sudanese person earning $2,272 annually – a large increase from $608 in 2019. For comparison, the average pay for workers in Morocco is $24,300 and $90,000 in Australia.
However, Sudan’s great leap forward has fallen backwards. Sudan has endured ongoing civil conflict since gaining independence from the British in 1956. Sudan’s notoriety for disorder reached global headlines in 2003, where the majority Fur, Masalit and Zaghawa ethnic groups engaged in ethnic cleansing of the minority Darfuri people until 2005. This resulted in the deaths of over 200,000 people, and outrage so severe that the United States organised a joint American-African Union mission to maintain peace in Darfur – becoming one of the largest UN peacekeeping missions ever.
Chronic instability in Sudan even led to its Southern State of South Sudan to officially secede in 2011, becoming newest recognised nation. However, this secession has only succeeded in producing the world’s poorest country.
The conflict has been exacerbated by its global sponsors, with Russia and governments in the Middle East such as the United Arab Emirates taking sides. The United States, overextended in Ukraine, Gaza and Taiwan, is reluctant to act. The United Nations, despite many motions, has failed to offer any solutions.
Sudan’s darkest days
Political map of Sudan (Pink = SAF, Teal = RAF, Other Colours = various militias).
The latest phase of Sudan’s civil conflict began on 15 April 2023 following the collapse of the UN-backed provisional government, after the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and Rapid Support Forces (RSF) withdrew from the 2019 Constitutional Declaration. Following the downfall of dictator Omar al-Bashir, the Sudanese Government, with the support of the UN, orchestrated a provisional democratic government, involving balancing the precarious interests of the SAF and RSF. The collapse of the agreement has seen Sudanese Government become effectively non-existent, with the Russian-backed Wagner Group running wild across Sudan’s plains, destroying everything in sight.
The ensuing violence has created the world’s worst humanitarian crisis in modern history, opening the door for it to be the most devastating crisis to impact Africa since the end of colonisation. According to UN estimates, 7.9 million Sudanese people have been internally displaced, with 2.1 million already fleeing the country’s borders. Sudan’s public infrastructure, consisting of water, electricity and communications has been mostly destroyed, inflation has exceeded 136.67%. 80% of hospitals in Sudan are no longer functional, and 22 hospitals have become centres for battlefield operations. According to Armed Conflict Location & Events Data, 22,596 people have died, although most other figures argue the death toll is as high as 150,000 already. Across Sudan, credible evidence of war crimes has emerged, with mass torture, rape and chemical weapons being deployed towards civilians.
“A famine in Sudan would easily beat other notorious famines, including the 1983-1985 famine in Ethiopia, with 2.5 million people expected to die by the end of the year from starvation.”
Satellite data has revealed farmland across the country has been intentionally burned by various warlords, with the intention to force starvation on the opposing parties. The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IFSPC) believes 25.6 million people are currently experiencing acute hunger, with 750,000 people in active starvation. Zamzam camp, a stronghold for the many displaced in North Darfur, has already declared famine across its territory. Some anecdotes reveal people have been forced to eat only grass and leaves just to survive to the next day. A famine in Sudan would easily beat other notorious famines, including the 1983-1985 famine in Ethiopia, with 2.5 million people expected to die by the end of the year from starvation. Worst case, up to 6-10 million people could die by 2027 unless the conflict is resolved.
Looking at the big picture, the crisis in Sudan has the potential to spill into a much wider conflict, which could jeopardise global economic and social security. Sudan’s borders are surrounded by several neighbouring countries – Egypt, Eritrea, Ethiopia, South Sudan, Central African Republic, Chad and Libya – each more fragile than the last. These countries are not only experiencing a flow of refugees – Chad receiving over 600,000 people so far – but also a flow of weapons, including internationally banned chemical agents. Refugee policy, an increasingly fraught issue across western democracies, would boil out of the pot. Refugee camps across Northern France including Calais already host over 60% Sudanese people, with increasing frustrations towards refugees becoming normalised in European political discourse.
Sudan could become a haven for international terrorist organisations, who could sow further political division across African countries – potentially escalating a regional war in Africa - and would have no qualms about exacting revenge against enemies in the west. Or, Sudan could fall into a state of anarchy, becoming the first nation since the end of the Cold War to disappear. Either way, its close proximity to the Suez Canal, responsible for the largest share of global trade, could force companies to abandon the route through the Red Sea, and hike the prices of goods across the world.
The Sudan that could
Sudanese refugee camp in neighbouring country Chad.
Australia has contributed $33.45 million to Sudan since April last year. The United Nations Office for Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs states at least $12.1 billion in aid has been received by Sudan, less than 50% of the aid required to prevent the potential deaths of millions. Most refugees remain displaced across north-western Africa, with many unable to access safe forms of travel. Australia has only provided 227 permanent visas and 565 temporary visas between April 2023 to July 2024.
Sudan’s lifeblood is the River Nile, responsible for creating some of human civilisation’s greatest innovations of the ancient era, being the source of prosperity for many. Yet millennia later, the people of Sudan, and by larger extent, its neighbours, are being threatened by the potential consequences of the world’s worst humanitarian crisis, if its chaos spills.
The ignorance displayed towards the conflict and the potential consequences it poses Sudanese people, Sudan’s neighbours, and, potentially, the rest of the world, cannot continue. To end the conflict, nations and public and private organisations must drastically increase foreign aid, effectively flowing into Sudan from all directions. Secondly, nations must impose sanctions on warlords, entities and businesses exploiting the conflict for gain and enable United Nations presence to prevent extremities from occurring.
This does not need to become the crisis the world chose to ignore, but instead the crisis it chose to end, not just for global security, but for the sake of human decency.