State of Play
The calm before the storm: a trade period that has seen just seven deals done in seven days, with as many as twenty deals to come over just the next two days.
Where Dan Houston will land by Wednesday’s deadline?
Houston remains in limbo on Monday night when a potential deal, that would’ve sent him to Collingwood, fell through. Houston’s camp considered the deal done, but Port were the club that rejected the deal. Callum Twomey broke the news in a tweet earlier today:
How did it get so messy with Dan Houston?
After the All-Australian half-back was linked to the Melbourne Demons during the year, rumours circulated for the best part of two months that he was leaving. Houston said at the end of August he was staying, before a massive big flip at the end of September saw him announce a want to return to Victoria.
Houston has met with multiple Victorian teams, including Carlton, Collingwood, the Western Bulldogs and St Kilda.
However, just three clubs remain in the hunt for Dan Houston. Collingwood leads the charge, while bitter rivals Carlton sit just behind. North Melbourne remains an outside chance, though a chance that has significantly increased with Port willing to trade with North Melbourne after Monday night’s deal fell through.
The Roos have only Pick 2 inside the first round this year, and while that pick would appeal to the Power, North Melbourne would be hesitant to split with it being so far from a Premiership.
Houston could yet stay at Alberton, having a contract until the end of 2028.
Our prediction: Dan Houston will get his wish and return to Victoria. All things easy, Houston’s wish is to play for Carlton, however he greenlit the idea of Collingwood in recent times as well. Dan Houston will be a Magpie in 2025.
This just has to be one of the biggest mysteries thus far in the 2024 AFL trade period.
A mystery in the sense that nothing has been mentioned with Jack Lukosius’ name in it until just now, about 48 hours from deadline day. He could end up being part of a mega three-team trade come Wednesday night.
A solution did rear its head during the Monday afternoon window; a three-team proposed deal was very close to a done deal before the Monday night window virtually ruled this one out. The deal would have seen Port Adelaide get Jack Lukosius (Gold Coast), Joe Richards (Collingwood), and Rory Atkins (Gold Coast). Collingwood would get Dan Houston from Port Adelaide and the Gold Coast Suns would end up with John Noble from Collingwood and also receive two future first round picks.
So close but yet so far away, more than four players are now left in limbo land getting awfully close to that dreaded deadline day. Jack Lukosius was almost a certainty to land at Port Adelaide coming into the trade period, but with about two days to go he is still tied to the Gold Coast Suns.
Jack is looking to get back to his home state of South Australia and had a choice between the Crows and Port, who both tabled him great deals. In the end, Lukosius chose Port Adelaide with close ties to Power skipper Connor Rozee. He still holds a two year deal with the Suns and if a deal weren’t to be done before Wednesday night’s deadline, he will be staying up north at the Gold Coast Suns.
Like many, many other players up for trade this year, Lukosius has a big couple of days ahead waiting to see where he is playing his footy next season. All will be told come 8pm Wednesday night.
Our prediction: A trade period in which many players have requested to leave their clubs but also have said they are happy and content in staying. Lukosius is one of those players still contracted with the Suns until the end of 2026. A deal does get done here though, Lukosius will be playing for Port Adelaide next year.
Can’t be anything more than trade bait can it?
Rory Atkins joined the Gold Coast Suns at the end of 2020 as a free agent after a long stint in South Australia with the Adelaide Crows. Over the eight seasons he spent at the Crows, he managed to play 101 games.
At thirty years of age, a return back to South Australia to play for Port Adelaide probably wasn’t on his bingo card. Since he joined the Suns four seasons ago, he has only managed the 37 AFL games, which is a tick under 10 games a season.
Port Adelaide in recent times rejecting the three-team mega trade deal, which involved a Rory Atkins move to the Power, suggests that Rory will be at the Suns in season 2025.
Our prediction: The only way Atkins was not a Gold Coast Suns player next season is if Port Adelaide agreed to this three-team mega trade and they didn’t, therefore Rory will remain with the Suns.
Pick 13
With up to seven clubs still in the hunt, Gold Coast’s second pick in the first round holds so much intrigue for the rest of the AFL.
It was widely expected that Collingwood would take 13 as part of a deal that would see John Noble join the Suns. The deal Collingwood offered was Noble and a future 1st for Pick 13.
Pick 13 would’ve ended up in the hands of Port Adelaide in Monday’s three-club mega-deal, but Port put a stop to that. The Dogs threw their hat in the ring with its future 1st, and the Eagles signalled its interest, but never put forward a deal.
The Saints and the Hawks have both offered a future 1st and a future 2nd, meanwhile Sydney have offered 19 and 22.
Perhaps the most interesting deal for the Suns is North Melbourne offering its future 1st and more. With North Melbourne looking likely to finish in the bottom four, that would give Gold Coast at least a top four pick next year, in return for Pick 13 this year.
Our prediction: the Suns should snap North’s hand off to get that done. North’s offer is boarding on ridiculous, and the Roos must sense massive improvement, or have their eye on multiple prospects at those selections.
Very much a certainty.
Peatling has been linked to the Crows since the very start of the AFL trade period after being in talks with a number of rival clubs. The Crows had offered just as much as the Giants, a four year term deal, but still managed a Peatling commitment.
With two days to go in this year's trade period, no deal is more certain than this one. The Giants have set a new asking price for the young midfielder. They are after future picks rather than picks in this year's draft.
This deal is very close to a done deal: Peatling will be playing for the Crows in season 2025 and all it might take is a future second pick.
Our prediction: Peatling will be playing for the Crows in season 2025.