Australia Votes: Politics heading into 2025

The political battleground heading into 2025

Australia’s political parties head to the polls in 2025. Learn what they will be fighting for and what to expect at the next election.

Australia’s 47th Parliament is wrapping up for 2024, following a year of political brawling between the parties, wins and losses, and volatility. We’re hearing the echoes of an election soon to come.

Anthony Albanese, the 31st Prime Minister of Australia, has bucked the trend of previous leaders (assuming nothing goes wrong over coming months), having maintained control of the government since winning office in the 2022 federal election. This is a feat not achieved since former Prime Minister John Howard (1996–2007). The Opposition leader, Peter Dutton, has maintained his leadership as well – a feat also not achieved for the Liberals in Opposition since former leader Tony Abbott (2009–2015). Following Australia’s recent history of political instability in the executive, having had seven Prime Ministers since 2007, this is definitely good news for the major party leaders.

Since May 2022, Australia has been governed by the centre-left Australian Labor Party (ALP), being the fourth time the ALP has unseated the LNP since WW2. It has exercised majority government, having won a majority of seats in the House of Representatives (Lower House) of Parliament. The ALP replaced the former centre-right Liberal-National Coalition (LNP) from government, having governed from 2013–2022 following the decline of the Rudd-Gillard Labor governments. Anthony Albanese replaced former Prime Minister Scott Morrison (2018–2022), Australia’s 30th Prime Minister. Anthony Albanese has been a member of the Australian Parliament since 1996.

Australia’s parliament is limited to three-year terms. With the next election expected to occur during the first half of 2025, what exactly will the parties be looking for?

The lowest of records - 2022

Anthony Albanese celebrating Labor’s 2022 election victory alongside Penny Wong and his then girlfriend Jodie Haydon | abc.net.au

In the 2022 Australian federal election, the ALP defeated the then-incumbent LNP coalition government, securing 77 seats, which is a slim majority of just one seat (76 seats is required for majority in the Lower House). Despite Labor’s slim victory, the Liberals saw large losses across the country, losing 19 seats, making their total only 56 seats (its smallest result since the party’s founding). The Greens picked up 3 seats, with independents leading the charge, securing 12 seats – the highest in the Parliament’s history.

Despite Labor and the crossbench’s impressive performance, first preference votes told a starker story for the major parties. Labor’s 77 seats translated to only 32% first preference votes, its lowest on record, with the Coalition not doing any better – receiving only 36%. Together, the major parties received 68% of first preferences, the lowest on record since federation.

House of Representatives following the results of the 2022 federal election.

Primary vote for Australian political parties since the 1996 federal election.

The election results confirm the trend of voters increasingly turning to minor parties and independents. Despite the Greens’ prominence, under a quarter of voters prefer politicians who exist outside the established political blocs – often those prioritising community issues. The ‘Teal Independents’, a group of women politicians backed by Climate 200, with some holding ideological alignment as small liberals, successfully campaigned on climate change failures of the Coalition within their electorates.

The interelection period

Anthony Albanese announcing the final negotiated wording of the Voice to Parliament proposal | sbs.com.au

Following the 2022 election, Albanese brought voters on a political honeymoon, seeing his personal popularity skyrocketing to 61% in August 2022 (with Labor gaining 60% two party preferred in December) – squashing Dutton’s 22% personal rating. These numbers obviously excited Albanese, who evidently saw this as a clear mandate for reform across Australia’s public sector and further promises outlined within the ALP’s 2022 manifesto.

Adding to Labor’s fortunes, and to the Coalition’s soul searching following its loss, Labor scored an impressive victory in the Aston by-election. Following the resignation of Liberal MP Alan Tudge, Labor gained the seat of Aston in April 2023 receiving a 6.4% two-party-preferred swing – achieving a once-in-a-century victory in a traditional Liberal heartland. 

Unfortunately for Labor, its sunny skies did not last forever. A dark cloud of inflation begun forming around the government – peaking at 7.8% in December 2022 alongside stagnation and declining growth in the Australian economy. At the same time, Labor as per its election commitment, announced it would hold a referendum on the Uluru Statement from the Heart’s proposal for an Indigenous Voice to Parliament to make representations to the Federal government on issues of importance for Indigenous people. The Voice to Parliament was initially popular with the Australian public, with many commentators originally expecting it to pass and be the natural next step in Australia’s reconciliation journey. This consensus was immediately quashed. Conservative organisations and leaders, including Aboriginal leaders Jacinta Nampijinpa Price and Warren Mundine said ‘if you don’t know, vote no’. This proved successful, with many Australians becoming disillusioned by the government’s perceived focus on Aboriginal affairs over cost of living.

Results of the Voice to Parliament Referendum.

The Voice to Parliament Referendum was defeated with over 60% of Australians voting against the proposal (Aboriginal people voted 63% in favour of the Voice). This result seriously maimed the government, with multiple commentators noticing a sudden change in the government’s attitude towards various issues following the result. The result was a victory for Dutton and the Coalition, who not only succeeded in ending the honeymoon, but also advertising the Coalition’s Aboriginal policies (possibly playing a role in the landslide defeat of the NT Labor government in 2024).

Throughout 2023 and into 2024, Labor seemed to lose its magic touch, unable to engage the public on cost of living, environment and the economy. The war in Gaza not only divided Labor, and the public generally, but exposed divisions within the government’s own policy of comradery. Senator Fatima Payman sensationally quit the party in late 2024 over frustrations with the government’s Palestine policy. At the close of 2024, the Australian political map has evolved rapidly. Labor is down to 31% primary vote, or just tied with the Coalition on second preferences. Perhaps most worryingly for Albanese is Dutton’s transformation from the political outskirts to the centre-ground – achieving 37% personal popularity.

The balance of power - 2025

Anthony Albanese staring down the rising threat of Peter Dutton | afr.com

If an election were held today, Labor could expect to lose 3–6 seats, forcing it into minority government. The seats of Bennelong, Higgins, Robertson and Tangney are currently held on margins of less than 2.5%, meaning a swing of roughly 2% against the government would cause them to lose these seats. The coalition would likely secure a similar gain of seats around Labor’s losses, but would be very unlikely to form government, even minority government, in its own right.

According to primary polling, Labor would expect to secure 31% (-2), Coalition 38% (+3), Greens 13-14% (-) and One Nation 4-5% (-). The polling data suggests voters for the minor parties have remained steady in their first preferences, while there has been a volatility between the major parties. Labor drew voters away from the Coalition in the first half of the term, before restoring things to slightly less than they were before the 2022 Australian election.

For Labor to retain majority government, it has two avenues of possibility. First, it could seek the centre ground by communicating directly to moderate Liberals and independents. This could safeguard any losses towards the Greens on its left flank, however it may require Labor to advertise itself beyond inner cities and prioritise the interests of suburban and mining communities. Secondly, it could prioritise its left flank and adopt policies closer to the Greens, however this risks Labor losing its centre ground to the Coalition – something that is already occurring. 

For the Coalition to achieve majority government, it must re-establish dialogue with independent voters who left the party in 2022 and clearly distinguish itself as a clear alternative to Labor. Alongside these independent voters, it must communicate a progressive plan for the environment to Teals who remain frosty to the Coalition’s nuclear ambitions. The Coalition must also become the favourable amongst mortgage-belt millennials. Polling data does not suggest this is impossible, but the window of opportunity for the Opposition leader is narrowing.

Opinion polling at the end of the day only tells one story. As the saying goes, the best poll is the one on election day.