Nuclear Australia, MAD enough to work?
Australia’s climate wars are entering new territory, but is nuclear feasible? An analysis.
Australia’s climate wars are nothing new. Since the Kyoto Protocol was signed in 1998, numerous governments (both Labor and Liberal) have failed to strengthen Australia’s energy standing, however can the Coalition’s public embrace of nuclear energy shift the debate?
Since the 2022 Australian federal election, the Albanese government (with the support of the Greens and crossbench independents) has passed numerous laws such as the Climate Change Act 2022, which have ratified Australia’s commitment to decarbonisation by 2050.
However despite continuing delays, the Coalition has indicated they would move to establish nuclear reactors (small or large) to reduce both emissions and prices, however only if they achieve government in 2025. This significantly contrasts the Labor government’s commitment to renewables such as solar, wind power and hydrogen to reduce emissions by 43% in 2030.
So can nuclear energy spark climate prosperity, or will it black out?
Background
In June 2023, Australia emitted 465.2 million tonnes of carbon (o.8 per cent increase since June 2022), or just over 1 per cent of global emissions, making Australia the 14th highest polluter in the world.
Energy production by far assumed responsibility for the majority of Australia’s emissions, followed by transportation, agriculture and industrial processes.
Australian Carbon Emissions
Despite attempts by governments since 1998 to reduce carbon emissions, such as the Rudd government’s Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme, Gillard government’s Carbon Pricing Scheme and Turnbull government’s National Energy Guarantee, these reforms are generally viewed by society to have only destabilised the climate debate.
Since being elected in May 2022, the Albanese government has shifted climate policy away from legislated restrictions, towards broader targets and investment subsidies in renewable energy production.
Its Future Made in Australia package for example provides over $100 million in renewable energy projects and developments, alongside creating industrial capacity beyond coal and gas, without any carbon pricing measures.
Unfortunately Australia will not meet its legislated 2030 targets, despite its significant investment into renewable energy production. Worse, the required investment necessary to further increase renewable energy capacity may see higher emissions in the short-term.
To further complicate the renewables shift, recent public opinion has increasingly shifted against the land clearing and construction of energy producers such as wind power, due to their potential disruptive force on the environment and communities.
The setback has empowered advocates for nuclear power to demand the Australian government lift its nuclear moratorium and introduce nuclear energy into the market. A poll conducted by the Lowy Institute, found 6 in 10 Australians support this view.
Nuclear Energy Poll
Nuclear Energy
Australia is already a nuclear power. Since the 1950s Australia has engaged nuclear partnerships with the United Kingdom and United States, produces 33% of the world’s uranium (making us the third largest global producer) and already as a nuclear reactor for scientific operation in Sydney!
Australia is among a handful of nations within the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (‘OECD’) which do not possess nuclear energy generation capacity. Since the COVID-19 Pandemic and subsequent cost of living crises, over 30 countries including Turkey, Egypt and Finland are making the switch to nuclear power.
Notably, during the height of European energy prices, France bucked the trend due to nuclear power generation.
Nuclear advocate groups such as Nuclear for Australia and Nuclear for Climate Australia have shone light to these statistics as evidence of the potential power of nuclear energy in Australia.
“Australia is the only member of the G20 with a ban on nuclear power. Keeping the 90s era bans is stabbing ourselves in the foot as we try to address the energy and climate crisis.”
Will Shackel, founder of Nuclear for Australia.
These groups argue the adoption of nuclear power in Australia will create cheaper energy prices, reduce Australia’s carbon emissions
Renewable Power
Australia has potential to be a renewable energy superpower on par with the United States and China, according to proponents such as the Albanese government, climate council, CISRO and state governments.
As mentioned, shifting to renewable energy requires significant investment to expand green energy producers such as solar panels, wind power, biomass and more. Australia is lucky to hold a unique comparative advantage by producing the necessary raw minerals, land and potential capital to make this a reality.
For instance, the global transition to low-emissions technology requires increasing wind and solar plants energy storage, while balancing the development of transmission infrastructure. This requires extensive manufacturing industry and mining of resources such as aluminium and lithium, of which Australia holds a significant reserve.
With investments such as the $23 billion Future Made in Australia package, this could generate significant manufacturing and economic growth for the economy while reducing emissions. The boost to mining and industry will also make Australia a more competitive trade partner. This was summarised by Treasurer Jim Chalmers:
“We recognise the best opportunities for the Australian people and their economy are at the intersection of industry, energy, resources, human capital, and investment…[will] deliver another generation of prosperity.”
Jim Chalmers, Treasurer of Australia.
Excluding manufacturing, Australia’s biomass has a role in producing significant hydrogen power, with native plants such as the mallee, having potential to capture carbon within outback areas.
Nuclear v Renewable
Both nuclear and renewable energy have the potential to provide significant improvements to the Australian economy, while also reducing carbon emissions, so why the debate? Actually, that’s the problem.
Australia’s legislated climate targets under the Climate Change Act 2022, require Australia to reduce its emissions by 43% by 2030, with a further reduction to net zero by 2050, as per the Paris Agreement.
Time is not on our side.
The Coalition for instance has credibility to question Labor’s realistic ability to achieve its own 2030 target, and open the doors for its repeal, given the series of supply chain issues and Australia’s regulatory tendency to self-impair.
However, the switch to nuclear energy (which can only become functionable after 2035) risks energy-grid blackouts by the mid 2030s if there is not some level of renewable investment now. Also, we miss our international climate obligations.
The creation of one nuclear reactor alone is $8.6 billion, with maximum potential to take 15 years, or by 2039 if construction started now.
The CIRSO’s latest energy sector report found renewable energy prices will drop from $112 to $82, while nuclear would fall from $509 to $282, the coalition contests this claim’s accuracy. Nuclear energy does however hold potential to safeguard a renewable energy system grid.
Is Nuclear Feasible?
Let’s say something different. Australia holds a unique comparative advantage for both renewable and nuclear energy. Maximising on both sources of power can generate jobs, reduce energy costs and achieve net zero by 2050. Perhaps we could become a global energy superpower that can challenge both China and the United States.
While the climate wars have been damaging in Parliament, the obsessive tribalism within media between one side or another will only undermine our energy ambitions. Both renewables and energy can complement one another’s shortcomings, with nuclear acting as a safeguard for renewables.
Australia’s biggest enemy in the climate wars, has been itself.