“Behind The Votes” The French Election: An Election of Two Rounds
The French Election | Credit: Liv Martin/POLITICO
Welcome back to Hub’s “Behind the Votes” series, as discussed in the previous instalment of the European Union (EU) election saw a monumental shift to the right, and its impact was far-reaching. French President Emmanuel Macron decided that there had been such a shift that it was the right time to call an election, and so that's what he did. What started out as trying to resolve the political unrest seen in France epically backfired and led to further tension in the country.
Why an Election?
The election was called because the French far-right party, National Rally, had received 30% of the vote in the EU election, while Macron's party had only managed half of that. As such, in the lead-up to the Olympic Games, Macron thought it would be a 'good idea' to call an election and give people the right to choose their government. This was only going to be a National Assembly election, not a general one, meaning Macron's position would be safe no matter the outcome. Further, many view the EU elections as a time for people to air their frustrations in an election they do not see directly impacting them, so Macron wanted to call the people's bluff. In doing so, he blamed his concerns on the rise of Nationals and what that would spell for France. But he also wanted to clean up the Parliament; when he had been voted in, Macron's party had not been able to form a majority government, so he hoped that through the election, he could win the seats he needed to pass legislation cleanly.
The Knockout Rounds
The Party Leaders | Credit: Liv Martin/POLITICO
The French electoral system is incredibly complex, with two voting rounds. There are 577 seats in the National Assembly, with 13 of those representing overseas districts and eleven representing constituencies. For a party to form a majority government, they need 289. This is what Macron failed to do when he was re-elected in 2022, as his party only achieved 250 votes, meaning for the past two years, he has had to form coalitions with other parties in order to pass legislation. France has two rounds of voting, which would seem foreign to many Aussies. Can you imagine the number of democracy sausage sizzles? It's mind-blowing! The first round of voting eliminates candidates who fail to get 12.5% of the vote. However, where things get interesting is that if you win more than 50% of the vote and more than a quarter of the constituency has voted in the first round, then you win in the first round. Personally, this idea seemed quite controversial, especially considering that only a quarter of the electorate would have voted. Still, this way of winning doesn't happen very often, so most of the time, the second round of voting is employed. In the second round, there is a battle for the win between the remaining candidates. The candidate chosen in this second round is then officially a member of the National Assembly. As Macron's job wasn't up for election, but the public sentiment towards his party was, many wondered if he would step down if his party were unsuccessful; Macron said he wouldn't, demonstrating his apparent confidence in his party to win the election. If only it had been that simple.
The Contenders
The Leaders Vying for Victory | Credit: The Economist
So, who are the parties fighting against Macron to take control of the home of the 'city of love'? Unlike Australia, which has two real contenders, five major parties are vying for election victory. The party currently in power is Macron’s, called Ensemble, which is the centrist party of the country. During his time in power, Macron passed legislation, including reforms to the pension scheme and trying to reduce public debts. He claims that he is neither left nor right and just wants to operate within a functioning government. As mentioned in the 2022 election, while his party received the most seats, it could not form a majority, meaning Macron has had to make deals with the minor parties to pass legislation, which has significantly slowed down the governmental process.
The second party you may have heard of, especially in the news, is the National Rally Party (RN), which is led by Marie Le Penn, whose father established the party’s predecessor party. This party is the far-right party in France and is essentially responsible for this snap election, considering their dominance in the EU elections. Their platform is basically the same as every far-right party ever! They have a hard line on immigration and are against Ukraine joining the EU. Further, there have been reports that they have been funded by a bank linked to the Kremlin. Their candidate for Prime Minister is Jordan Bardella, who is 28 years old and has said that unless his party wins the majority, he doesn't want the job because he doesn't want to be the "President's Assistant".
On the other end of the spectrum sits the "New Popular Front" (NPF), a coalition of left-wing parties in France. Throughout the election campaign, they heavily advocated for Macron's policies to be overturned, including his treasured pension reform. They hold a lot of power within the French government, and it was expected that should Ensemble not get a majority, Macron would form a coalition with NPF.
The two other minor parties are the Republicans, which sit in the centre-right faction of France. Should they win, they have said they would form a coalition with RN, which I think says enough about their policy positions. Finally, Reconquest is the Catholic-right wing party in France, which mirrors the positions of the other two right-wing parties and wants to limit immigration into France.
Who was the Victor?
French Prime Minister Michel Barnier | Credit: Sarah Meyssonnier/AFP via Getty Images
So, those were the parties vying for the top spot and control over the National Assembly, but who emerged victorious?
As alluded to earlier in this article, the aim of Macron for the election was to simplify the political landscape of France. However, once again, no parties were able to form a majority. NFP ended up winning the most seats. However, after months of deliberation between the parties, Macron ended up opting for a coalition between some of the centre-right parties and centrist parties. Notably, he failed to include anyone from NFP, which they have not been impressed by, with them calling for a vote of no confidence in the government when Parliament resumes. Even with this, they have failed to form a majority, meaning they will probably end up relying on RN to pass legislation. As such, Macron named Michael Barnier as PM, who was a prominent negotiator of Brexit and is conservative. Macron didn't include NFP in the cabinet because their platform was to overturn Macron's policy platforms and thus destroy his legacy. So, while the NFP did get the majority of seats, the centre-right will hold the power and probably end up negotiating with RN. This will also mean a conservative policy agenda revolving around anti-immigration platforms. However, the vote of no confidence that NFP has pledged will be critical to watch for the impact on France's political landscape.
Did it Work?
While Macron took a political gamble and tried to make life easier for himself, it epically backfired. There are now more coalitions being formed and deals with the right that Macron will have to make. The French political climate will shift because of this and become more conservative. However, it does mirror the continued political instability that has been seen across the globe this year through the multitude of elections. As discussed in this series, the global political landscape is shifting and becoming more complex, which this French election demonstrates. Now we wait and watch to see if it becomes even more complicated with the NFP's no-confidence vote.
References
ABC 2024, ‘Emmanuel Macron Calls Snap French Election after far-right Party Makes Gains’, ABC News, 9 June, viewed 24 October 2024, <https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-06-10/emmanuel-macron-calls-snap-french-election/103957836>.
Howard, J 2024, French President Emmanuel Macron announces new right-wing government, Bbc.com, BBC News, viewed 24 October 2024, <https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c8rd52zl018o>.
Kirby, P 2024, French elections: How Do They Work and Why Are They so significant?, www.bbc.com, viewed 24 October 2024, <https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cnkkng554w8o>.
The Economist 2024, France election poll tracker: will Le Pen’s National Rally beat Macron’s alliance?, The Economist, viewed 24 October 2024, <https://www.economist.com/interactive/france-elections-2024-polls-macron-le-pen>.
Vandoorne, S 2024, The left won France’s election, but its new government will be at the mercy of the far right, CNN, viewed 24 October 2024, <https://edition.cnn.com/2024/09/24/europe/france-new-government-right-analysis-intl/index.html>.