“Behind The Votes” The EU Election: The Votes of a Continent
The EU Elections | Credit: Euronews
Earlier in the year, at the start of June, the European Union (EU) member states went to the polls to decide who would represent them in the European Parliament (EP). These elections spanned the 27 member states, with trends reflecting what has been seen globally. Far-right parties saw a spike in votes due to continued instability across the region. In this second edition of Hub’s election series, ‘Behind the Votes’, I will explain the voting system and the impacts the results with have.
The Unique Electoral System
The EU elections function in much the same way as domestic elections do. However, it is on a much grander scale. There are 27 countries within the EU that vote in the polls, each represented by a number of MPs proportionate to their population. Voters choose to elect domestic parties that then band together to form European political parties. For example, the European People’s Party is a collection of centre-right parties from across the continent that band together for the European Parliamentary elections. Each member state employs its own voting mechanism to elect its representatives, and the domestic voting laws often apply for the EP elections, including the eligibility of voters, such as voting age.
Did History Repeat Itself?
The EU went to the polls in 2019 | Credit: François Walschaerts, AFP
The 2019 EP elections set the trend for voters moving away from traditional parties, with far-left and far-right parties gaining popularity. This, at the time, followed a trend seen in the EU's domestic elections. Voters were frustrated by centre parties’ inaction and started moving away from traditional options, drawn by the lure of anti-immigration or, on the other hand, pro-EU rhetoric. The 2019 election was the first time a centre party hadn't reached a majority. While the parliament was largely pro-EU, there were greater fractions than seen previously, which limited its ability to pass policy and legislation. However, 2019 also set the trend of a higher voter turnout, demonstrating the growing political engagement among voters across the continent.
The Results of 2024
So, by using this process, let's discuss the results of this election. Across the board, there were an increase in far-right votes, with drops in left-wing parties seen as well. The European People’s Party (EPP) maintained its popularity, and President Ursula von der Leyen maintained her leadership. The EPP is a collection of centre-right parties across Europe that come together for the EU elections. However, as discussed, the multiple parties that exist in the EU have meant that the EPP does not have the majority of seats required to form a majority government, having only won 182 out of 720 seats. As such, the party must now form a coalition with smaller parties to ensure they have a majority to pass policies. As the EPP are a centre-right party, they are likely to form the coalition with the social-democrats and liberals as their values align more closely than those of the far-right parties. However, the number of members in this left-wing faction of the EP is shrinking, with them having lost 45 seats across the board. At the same time, the far-right parties grew by 50 seats.
These increases for the far-right were due to the continued economic instability across Europe. With the wars in Ukraine and Gaza painting the backdrop to the economic instability seen globally, people are turning to parties that feel ‘safe’. The left can sometimes feel too uncertain and new for people, especially during times when the instability is causing them growing anxiety about the state of the world. As such, people turn to conservative parties as they think they can provide stability and strength during these times. This same trend is seen in Australia. The Liberal party in Australia is often voted in after a term of economic instability as voters believe they can repair the economy. At the same time, Labour is known for more welfare and spending policies. Despite these rises in popularity, the far-right parties fundamentally underperformed against what was expected, with only France and Germany meeting the predicted increases.
What will the impact of this be?
France's Conservative Party leader, Marine Le Pen | Credit: Jilien De Rosa/AFP
But what are the impacts of an increase in far-right parties? There are predictions that the efficiency of these parties will be minimal in pushing a far-right agenda despite their high numbers. Due to the continued differences in the beliefs of these parties, they are expected to struggle to form an effective coalition on a wide range of issues. They will likely target areas such as immigration, climate change, trade and agriculture, which, despite their lack of cohesion, will still make it difficult for moderate and left parties to push through policies in these areas. Their sheer numbers mean they now have the power to slow down policies being pushed through the parliament. These changes signal to the rest of the world to expect a shift in the policies of the EU.
If you read our last ‘Behind the Votes’, you will notice the lack of political drama in the EU parliament compared to the never-ending performance of UK politics. However, what is important to note from this election was the domino effect it had on member states. French President Emmanuel Macron decided he would call a snap domestic election due to the increase in support for the far-right. This move will be discussed in the next edition of the series. Still, it demonstrates that the EP elections often indicate voters' sentiments, allowing them to voice their opinion without the effects of a domestic election. Subsequent elections across EU member states have followed the trend of an increase in votes for far-right parties due to the geo-political instability discussed earlier.
While the EU elections may seem like a universe away—a plane ride there definitely feels like that—for many Australians, they highlight a growing concern about extremists' growing political capital globally. While countries like the UK have returned to centre-left parties, political neglect has meant many voters are turning to far-right parties to get their voices heard.
References
Adler, K 2019, European elections 2019: What were the clear trends?, Bbc.com, BBC News, viewed 9 September 2024, <https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-48420024>.
European Parliament 2024, What are European elections and how do they work? | European elections 2024, Homepage | European elections 2024, viewed 9 September 2024, <https://elections.europa.eu/en/how-elections-work/>.
Feingold, S & Torkington, S 2024, EU elections 2024: Who won and lost – and what happens next?, World Economic Forum, viewed 9 September 2024, <https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2024/06/european-parliament-elections-eu-brussels-2024/>.
Hadfield, A 2024, EU parliament election sees shaken centre hold – but far right now has chances to show its strength, The Conversation, viewed 9 September 2024, <https://theconversation.com/eu-parliament-election-sees-shaken-centre-hold-but-far-right-now-has-chances-to-show-its-strength-231835>.
Kirby, P & Gozzi , L 2024, ‘Why European elections matter and how they work’, www.bbc.com, 1 May, viewed 9 September 2024, <https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68899405>.
Kroet, C & Schickler, J 2024, EU elections: The winners and losers in Brussels and across Europe, euronews, viewed 16 September 2024, <https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2024/06/10/eu-election-results-hang-in-the-balance-as-polls-close>.
Pietromarchi, V 2024, EU elections 2024: Who lost and won, and who was hurt?, Al Jazeera, viewed 9 September 2024, <https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/6/10/eu-elections-2024-who-lost-and-won-and-who-was-hurt>.
Rankin, J 2024, AfD’s success in German elections piles pressure on a fragmented EU, the Guardian, The Guardian, viewed 9 September 2024, <https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/sep/03/afds-success-in-german-elections-piles-pressure-on-a-fragmented-eu>.